Hurricane Season '09

[Guest cfif]

Tropical Depression One has formed....if named, it will become Ana:

 

 

STORM NAME AND HISTORY

 

• Ana
  
  
• Bill
  
• Claudette
  
• Danny (unused)
  
• Erika (unused)
  
• Fred (unused)
  
• Grace (unused)
  

 

• Henri (unused)
  
• Ida (unused)
  
• Joaquin (unused)
  
• Kate (unused)
  
• Larry (unused)
  
• Mindy (unused)
  
• Nicholas (unused)
  

 

• Odette (unused)
  
• Peter (unused)
  
• Rose (unused)
  
• Sam (unused)
  
• Teresa (unused)
  
• Victor (unused)
  
• Wanda (unused)
  

[Vlad 325]

Ah, here we go again! :awesome:.

 

But my god, this year went by so fast, I mean, to already be in the Hurricane Season again, it literally seems like it was yesterday we just got over it, lol.

 

Here are a few pointers on the upcoming season:

 

- The Hurricane Season officially starts tomorrow, Monday (June 1) and will conclude on Monday (November 30).

 

- The first official storm will bear the name "Ana". The storm names for this season are actually the names used in the 2003 season, with the exception of Fabian, Isabel and Juan all of which were retired due to their extensive damages caused back in 2003.

 

- The hurricane experts (Klotzbach's Team and NOAA) are predicting an average to slightly above average season this year, due to a very weak El Nino presence, which results in a slightly cooler Atlantic Ocean (unfavorable for development).

[Vlad 325]

Wow, its been a while, lol.

[Alain 17]

2nd wave coming off of the Cape Verde Islands..

 

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE

AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Vlad 325]

I found these articles on The Weather Channel website, I found them quite interesting, so I thought I'd share them with you guys. The first article talks about how late starting tropical seasons, do not necessarily mean that it will be a quiet or inactive one. The second one talks about the second wave that has just formed off of the Cape Verde and Western African Coast has great potential to become a tropical cyclone. Could this one be the next big one? It also talks about the potential of it making landfall somewhere in the carribean, and then potentially here in the United States, only time will tell.

 

______________________________________________________________________________

 

ARTICLE #1:

2009: One of the Latest Tropical Starts

 

When talking about the Atlantic tropical season, only seven years since 1950 have had a later first named tropical storm than 2009 (through August 13). The graphic above shows those years and the position of the tropical storms in the Atlantic where they were named. With Tropical Depression 2 re-classified late Wednesday as a remnant low, we are still waiting for the name of "Ana". What notable storms struck the U.S. in those late-starting years? Check out the graphic below for the answer.

 

 

There was the infamous double-strike by Andrew over South Florida (Category 5) and Louisiana (Category 3) in 1992 and also Hurricane Alicia (Category 3) in 1983 striking Galveston and Houston. We can't draw too many conclusions from these historical stats but what we can definitely say is that a late-starting season doesn't necessarily mean it will end quietly.

 

Thanks to TWC senior meteorologist Jon Erdman who dug up the stats and created the graphics.

________________________________________________________________________

 

ARTICLE #2:

Tropical outlook: Signs of life

 

6:00am ET Update: Late Thurday afternoon, the NHC issued the final advisory for Tropical Depression 2 re-classified it as a remnant low circulation.

 

Like it has been doing, bursts of convection (thunderstorms) are possible around the center of circulation during the next several days but until persistent thunderstorm activity is present, further advisories from the NHC have stopped.

 

Original entry follows...

 

This is a follow-up to our tropical outlook entry from yesterday regarding the potential development of a tropical low in the far eastern Atlantic.

 

 

One look at the tropical Atlantic this afternoon tells us that the hostile environment that has existed throughout May, June and July still exists today. Tropical Depression 2 is struggling to stay alive. On the infrared satellite image above, it is nearly indiscernible. A look at the visibile satellite imagery reveals that it is low-level cloud swirl with minimal thunderstorm activity. It is barely hanging onto TD status. This is primarily due to persistent easterly wind shear at the upper levels of the atmosphere which helped to tear convection away from its center of circulation. Still, it has an opportunity to cling to life in the coming hours and reproduce thunderstorms that it once was abundant. If it does so, the naming of Tropical Storm Ana may not be far away.

 

 

With TD 2 barely hanging on, we next shift our attention to the very large cloud swirl to TD 2's east. It is a large tropical low that emerged off the African coast yesterday morning and has now spent about 24 hours over the eastern Atlantic waters.

 

Even with its presence over the water, it has showed little development during the past 24 hours up until this afternoon. As of this writing (1pm ET Thursday), rain and thunderstorms have begun to re-fire around the broad circulation.

 

 

Could this be the beginning of further development? We have to wait and see. If the thunderstorms could begin to also ignite over the center of circulation, then we may be onto something. Interestingly enough, the National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of formation from medium to high.

 

Interactive map: Animating satellite imagery

Yes, computer weather models (as mentioned earlier) still are predicting that this non-named tropical low will go on to develop in the central Atlantic through this weekend and into early next week.

 

 

As the final image states, details are highly uncertain pertaining to this disturbance. It's important to remember that this system still hasn't even come close to fully developing yet and until that happens, the computer weather models have not verified.

 

But weather.com and TWC will continue to monitor the latest happenings of the tropical Atlantic and we'll have a follow-up to this continuing story on Friday.

 

© 2009 The Weather Channel

[ProButtonPusher 230]

Looks like TD 4 is going to become TS Claudette today, affecting us here in the Florida Panhandle...

[Al-SA-TX 54]

TD 4 has now strengthen and is now Tropical Storm Claudette

 

[Vlad 325]

That was some fast development within only 2 days, lol. Well I guess the long wait is over. Those Spaghetti models seem to have Bill targeting the highly populated New England Coastline, and if it does strike New York or somewhere in the northeast, it will be a record setting storm because it will be the first time that a Hurricane Season's first Major Hurricane made landfall on the Mid-Atlantic / New England coastlines. Hopefully if it does strike later next week it doesn't cause too much damage. Last year, we had Tropical Storm Hanna, in which damage was Minimal, only about 32,000 residents lost power on Long Island and New York City. There was just a lot of rain associated with the storm. Anyway its still a long ways off to tell, if anything according to the advisories the storm should be anywhere near land by sometime next weekend.

 

 

 

[bostonmediaguy 123]

Those Spaghetti models seem to have Bill targeting the highly populated New England Coastline, and if it does strike New York or somewhere in the northeast, it will be a record setting storm because it will be the first time that a Hurricane Season's first Major Hurricane made landfall on the Mid-Atlantic / New England coastlines. Hopefully if it does strike later next week it doesn't cause too much damage.

 

Yikes! We haven't had a hurricane since '91! The power was out for four days.

[Bucc 4]

Question: If they do it in Alphabetical order, how did they just have TS Felicia??? I think I'm confused!?!

[WXmanTim 88]

There are two lists...one for the Atlantic basin - including the Gulf of Mexico - and one for the eastern Pacific (coastal Mexico). TS Felicia was on the latter list.

[Bucc 4]

Two basins (Atlantic/Pacific). Two sets of names. Felicia was a Pacific Storm, these are Atlantic storms.

 

Anyone who's ever watched The Weather Channel, (or actually any weathercast at all) should know that.

 

Thanks for answering, weathermen in the Albany, NY Market literally spend 3 seconds on the tropics, and I've never watched the weather channel

[Vlad 325]

Well, by the looks of it the Spaghetti Models, mostly have Hurricane Bill away from land, so the most we'll probably see from Bill is Storm Surge, which is good, because if this were to make a direct hit on the highly populated Long Island and New York City, it would really cause some extreme devastation, not to mention chaos, since many homes here in Long Island are not suitable for Hurricanes. There have been some new Hurricane Evacuation route signs put up last year and this year, but still evacuating an island with over 2 million people living in it is no joke, not to mention New York City, which has over 8 million, so lets hope this thing stays away from New England, so far its looking good, based on the latest spaghetti models, it seems that the most we can get is rip currents and severe wave action and perhaps maybe a few rain bands. Of course, only time will tell...