NYC Weather Forecasts

[NYNews 54]

First off, Merry Christmas to all.

 

Don't know if weather forecasters are being conservative or if the storms are getting more "sophisticated" in which the weather models can't predict their paths, but I think every station in NYC failed even with less than 36 hours to predict that a "blizzard" was on its way.

 

Last night, all were saying we'll be getting some light snow. Now forecasters are predicting 12+ inches in the city. I understand weather changes constantly, but it's interesting none of the stations got it right.

 

What are your thoughts?

[who?cares 254]

I think it was because the weather models were having such a hard time with the system in the midwest.

[NewsJunkie247 1]

My family and I were discussing this earlier today and I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks the coverage of this potential blizzard has been less than stellar. I was so surprised when I came to visit family in the NY area that the forecasters on all of the channels were (and to an extent, currently are) so unaware of a potentially huge storm, even with all of the current technology. I mentioned that in Pennsylvania on WJAC and WTAJ in the Johnstown/Altoona market (DMA 101), the forecasters are usually right on the money with winter storms and warn of them atleast a week in advance. On the other hand, in the number one market, forecasters are showing a great deal of uncertainty. It might be the type of winter storm, but yet I would think all winter storms are hard to track.

[ProButtonPusher 230]

The storm track was brought more to the west then anticipated, causing the nor'easter to become more of a problem then first thought. Weather is hard to predict, and when one thing changes, many things are changed with it.

[Vlad 325]

Forecasting the weather in New England and the Mid-Atlantic is among the most difficult in the nation because of how quickly things can change. Often without notice. Lee Goldberg had mentioned how this was the one of the most trickiest systems to forecast in his entire career. The reason why this storm was so difficult was because of the disturbance in the middle of Canada that essentially pulled the Nor'easter closer to the coastline.

 

Earlier in the week through Thursday and early yesterday, computer models suggested that the disturbance in the middle of Canada wouldn't be strong enough or fast enough to influence the other two Low pressure systems to hug closer to the coastline. But now that the two lows have stalled and slowed down, this will allow the third Low in the middle of Canada to "catch up" and act as a magnet to the other two Lows that originally were supposed to leave the coast to pull back in causing the significant snows that we will experience tomorrow afternoon into Monday.

 

Right now Blizzard warnings are in effect for the entire Tri-State Area. Another unusual event in weather this year is the presence of two jet streams rather than one. As a result of La Niña. Which is a pattern in which we typically experience colder than normal weather and freezing temperatures and less snow. As we've seen so far this year. During La Niña winters we often see most storms pass to the south with the aid of the secondary jet stream.

 

Hence why California and most of the Pacific West Coas are experiencing drenching rains. And why the Atlantic East Coast is relatively dry, with the exception of tomorrow's Blizzard of course. The storm is expected to begin at around the afternoon hours tomorrow and end on Monday Morning. The National Weather Service has stated that it will snow for 18 hours which could yield 12+ inches of snow. And since winds are above 40+ mph this is officially a Blizzard.