GoldenShine_10

This looks like a case that Disney was threatening their affiliations and they had to fold like a house of cards.

Nexstar owns the ABC affiliation in 2 of the SEC markets (and will own two more if the Tegna deal gets through). Sinclair has it in one of the markets. The rest is a hodgepodge of companies. One other thing I'd watch to see if any of the remaining independently-owned ABC affiliates (examples: KTBS, WBRZ, WDAY) try to join Sinclair and Nexstar in boycotting as well. There aren't that many of them, but they would have a bit more leverage.

I'm guessing they were losing money for a while and couldn't sustain it. KSBW is the 100-ton gorilla in the market and California doesn't bring in political dough very much, being a very one-sided state.

It had probably become a money loser, especially since KSBW is the 100-ton gorilla in the market.

Then we could see companies like Nexstar and Gray acquire the networks...

After over a month, there is no sign of paperwork on the FCC site. For comparison, the Gray acquisitions forthcoming all were up within 2 weeks. I know this is massive, but they either seem to be struggling to figure out how this is being organized, or don't know what they are doing.

They make Nexstar look very moderate as a result. Also, where would the affiliations go to? It's not like there's better options in many of the markets.

Where does it leave the other big companies like Scripps and Gray? I know they've been quiet so far.

I wonder if those at WAVE realize that could be where they end up eventually? After all, WDRB has a much better studio right now.

I see one of two scenarios for her: 1) She pulls a James Spann and starts a new online operation focused on Rhode Island 2) A Boston station (say, WCVB) decides to hire her

One possibility is a WPMI-WEAR combination (being the two strongest stations) while turning off the other two stations, or a nickel-and-dime sale - if they can't go past 2 stations.

If Gray wanted anything, it would be WINK.

Paperwork is up on the acquisition of the Allen stations: https://enterpriseefiling.fcc.gov/dataentry/api/download/attachment/25076f9198d1eb470198e7e7b5b10b27 WTHI, WLFI and WTVA are clean. As long as the 8th Circuit ruling holds, they would be okay in Huntsville with WAFF and WAAY (1st and 4th place), KFVS and WSIL(+KPOB) (1st and 3rd place), WFIE and WEVV (1st and 4th place), and KATC and KADN (2nd and 3rd place). WIFR is low-power so WREX is not an issue. The red lights, in my opinion, are Fort Wayne and Montgomery. I would put a condition that one station must be divested in those markets as the failing station waiver shouldn't create a triopoly when alternatives exist. In Fort Wayne, there's an easy out - trade WISE or WFFT to Nexstar (along with WBKI in Louisville) for something that creates major issues for them in the Tegna acquisition (such as KTHV). In Montgomery, most likely they would have to either turn off WIYC, or sell it to a religious broadcaster, as the other incumbent there (Bahakel) also has issues. One thing I could also see is KFVS put a satellite up on 3.2 to improve coverage for CBS in the northern part of the market.

Their ratings have to drop below about 4% of the total day viewership before such can occur.

My guess is WOIO would move to Lakeside afterward, buying it up on the cheap.

Comprehensive exhibit is up for Gray/Block: https://enterpriseefiling.fcc.gov/dataentry/api/download/attachment/25076f91989faf5b0198aff578690ddf A failing station waiver is requested for WBKI to create the triopoly. I'd argue that it should become available for Tegna --> Nexstar (WHAS) or Hearst (WLKY) first, since neither have duopolies. One way out could be to trade it to Nexstar for a market that creates a problem with the Tegna deal where Gray can take on a second station, or if combined with more pieces, for a new market for Gray (or Nexstar in a hypothetical future deal). If I were the regulators, I would put that condition on the deal.

An alternate possibility is that some stations may farm out their weather to these independent startups and abandon their departments. It might be cheaper to send them contracts than to do it in-house.

Comprehensive exhibit for the first deal (the Scripps trade): https://enterpriseefiling.fcc.gov/dataentry/api/download/attachment/25076ff39819f0d001982eaeca591644 Overall, Colorado Springs is the market that looks to be a potential issue. However, they have an out in that Scripps can turn off KOAA and use the Pueblo satellite (say, have 11.1 and 30.2 as CBS and 11.2 and 30.1 as NBC), even if the waiver doesn't happen and the ruling is overturned - neither Gray nor Scripps have a duopoly there. The rest looks fair game. This shouldn't be a huge issue. While Lansing would be a top-4 duopoly (currently permitted due to the court ruling), it also shouldn't create any antitrust issues. The gap between #2 and #3 in the market is gargantuan.

They will need to look to Tegna's shareholders to make the argument that it is a better deal than Nexstar's. Although Sinclair has much bigger financial issues...that would be a disaster in the making.

WVLT will likely dominate the market in that case.

The only offsetting scenario could be if it's determined market share is too high, and that's unlikely. I suspect 65-70% or so would be the trigger point on that.

Since neither Nexstar nor Tegna currently have a duopoly there, with the recent court ruling, as long as market share isn't extreme they can actually merge them cleanly.

As far as WANF, they should also look at shows focused on the entire state of Georgia, perhaps a state legislature weekly on Sunday and opportunities to use locally-produced non-news programs in the future, airing them on the other stations they have in Augusta, Savannah, Albany, Macon, Tallahassee* and Columbus (and, if they can acquire, Chattanooga* and Jacksonville*) * probably in part, since they would need to share with adjacent states.

I don't think Gray can afford everything right now (or anyone else, for that matter). Plus I doubt Sinclair wants to let go of their influence, especially right now.

That's from all the mistakes they made a few years ago, with their behavior combined with the cable deals as desperation to get "something".