The CW Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016

[The Frog 429]

As some of you are aware, Tribune’s 10-year affiliation deal with The

CW expires in approximately 3 years. Tribune is The CW’s major station

group artery, with 14 affiliates in top rated markets. (LA, NYC,

Chicago, etc.) It’s largely believed that when the time comes, Tribune

will choose not to extend the contract with The CW, due to the network’s

continued low ratings and Tribune’s ambition of creating more original

and local programming. I have dubbed this forthcoming event as “The CW

Affiliate Apocalypse of 2016″, or perhaps more appropriately, the

“Tribunemageddon.”

 

Some think The CW will simply shut down. I believe The CW is too much

of a revenue machine for CBS and Warner Bros. properties for the parent

corporations to shut down. Naturally, the option would be find new

affiliates to the network. Immediately replacing some of the the lost

top market stations wouldn’t be too hard of a task; CBS owns several

independent or MyNetworkTV stations that they probably wouldn’t hesitate

to flip and create more CBS-CW duopolies:

 

New York: WLNY 55

 

Los Angeles: KCAL 9

 

Ft.Worth-Dallas: KTXA 21

 

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale: WBFS 33

 

Boston: WSBK 38

 

That being said, do you also believe that Tribune will dump The CW

come 2016, and if so, which stations in the Tribune markets without a

CBS-owned alternative will best serve as a replacement affiliate for The

CW, or will The CW simply become a digital subchannel on those CBS

stations?

[chrelevator 28]

If the CW network goes away, I'll be perfectly fine with it (I don't really care for it), though it will hurt my local CBS station, KDKA 2, which broadcasts two newscasts on WPCW 19 (7am/10pm). It will hurt them because I don't know how they would fill the void left by CW programming on WPCW (turn it to the Pittsburgh version of KCAL/WLNY/KTXA, perhaps?), so it is possible that they could even shut down the station if that is the case.

 

On the other hand, if Tribune doesn't pick up CW in 2016, I could see CBS moving their duopolies to CW, though I don't know how viewers would feel about that. I don't know what programming airs on stations like WLNY, KCAL, and KTXA, but if they are doing just fine now I don't think it would be a good thing to turn them into CW affiliates.

 

That's just my two cents on the matter. Either way it's not going to make me watch the CW.

[Leavellebrett 85]

(turn it to the Pittsburgh version of KCAL/WLNY/KTXA, perhaps?)

I hope that happens. I hope they make it available on cable in the Johnstown market still. We don't have a CW affiliate. We either get WPCW or WPIX. I get PIX, but want WPCW, but Comcast won't do anything about it. I've tried to complain but they don't listen.

[Rusty Muck 4374]

One would think that the CBS stations would be locks, but...

 

** KCAL has forged an identity as an extension of the CBS2 News brand by airing newscasts in prime time (not dissimilar from when Disney had KCAL run news from 8-11p nightly).

 

** There's the rub of WLNY. Technically, it's not directly serving the NYC market proper, and none of CBS's NYC FM stations put a 60dBu signal into WLNY's COL of Riverhead. CBS made that case before the FCC when they purchased 101.9 FM, the former WRXP, to relay 66WFAN, to justify ownership cap limits. (Albeit, those are limits largely drafted back in the late 1990s, prior to digital TV, but still, that's how CBS got away with buying both WLNY and 101.9.)

 

If they turned WLNY into a CW affiliate, that would make it a NYC market station. Which CBS could remedy - could - by turning WLNY into a cable-only channel and selling off the terrestrial signal:

 

 

 

 

 

In practice, of course, what really matters to CBS (if not to the FCC) isn’t WLNY’s little-viewed over-the-air signal, but rather the guaranteed spot on cable and satellite systems all over the tri-state area that the OTA license provides…and that’s affected by a completely different set of rules that have nothing to do with radio cross-ownership. So unless there’s a challenge to CBS’ carefully-constructed cross-ownership case, it appears the company is on its way to building the biggest radio-TV cluster in America.

 

 

 

 

** It's possible that WBFS and KXTA link up with the CW. I wouldn't put all my money on that happening, though.

 

** WLVI is now owned by Sunbeam, and probably will renew with the CW, so WSBK will likely stick with MyTV or go back to being an indie once again someday.

 

What ought to concern the CW is the potential loss of Tribune affiliates in Chicago, Washington DC, Indianapolis, Denver and St. Louis (LocalTV selloffs notwithstanding), NOLA and Atlanta. Some of those markets are so deeply locked in affiliations and/or owners (Chicago, Washington DC and Atlanta come to mind right off the bat) that I'm not sure the network could recover from in spite of KCAL, WLNY, WBFS and KXTA.

 

Somewhere, the Fox suits are laughing over this while going over the balance sheets for MyTV.

[chrelevator 28]

That's awfully strange why they would give you WPIX when WPCW is closer....

[Rusty Muck 4374]

I hope that happens. I hope they make it available on cable in the Johnstown market still. We don't have a CW affiliate. We either get WPCW or WPIX. I get PIX, but want WPCW, but Comcast won't do anything about it. I've tried to complain but they don't listen.

Is Comcast's carriage of WPIX grandfathered from the station's pre-WB independent superstation days, or did they start retrans of WPIX when the CW launched?

[Leavellebrett 85]

Is Comcast's carriage of WPIX grandfathered from the station's pre-WB independent superstation days, or did they start retrans of WPIX when the CW launched?

We had WPIX for our WB affiliate. It came about at the start of the dubba dubba dubba. It wasn't on our cable when it was an independent. We also have never had a UPN affiliate.

[CircleSeven 1955]

Well I can say this. I won't lose any sleep, he'll I would be celebrating if WGN goes back to independent. They wouldn't have to use WCIU as a scapegoat to air certain games because of network pre-emption limitations. Now if they make a deal with the Cubs on future carriage, they won't have anything else to worry about. I missed their 7 O'clock Movies, and airing primetime games, whichever sports was on, whether it was baseball or basketball. Channel 9 is better off back as an Independent station. It was the tail end of the WB years and now its been seven seasons of The CW, WGN, WPIX & KTLA can do better than that. WCIU could easily get the CW affiliation. They usually get anything WGN passes on, anyway. And they'll probably air the kids block on a Sunday, like they did with Kids WB, when WGN passed on that package.

 

If the CW returns on the next 11 year cycle, then Tribune needs to revolt and find other alternatives. But we don't what the future holds. We still have to deal with these upcoming incentive auctions and which channels could possible go dark or who will be sharing the same channel after the auctions in 2014. And after that, when will all the channels move, which could take years.

 

But I think there will be a ultimatum for the fate of the CW. Warner Brothers already have The WB.com airing video content and CBS is still doing their thing for many of its props. They won't be losing more money after this go ahead so I think both firms will pull the plug on the CW. If they don't, there some of the dumbest MoFos around.

[ABC 7 Denver 1715]

I pretty much think that no matter what what anyone in Denver does, KWGN will have to be the CW affil. It seems like KTVD is happy with *gulp* MyNetworkTV affiliation and KDVR likes FOX. I really can't see any change here.

[channel2 979]

I think the best route for The CW would be to stop being an over-the-air TV network and find some other method of distribution. Broadcast television is not a niche-friendly playing field, and The CW's target audience of teenagers and young adults seems too desirable for CBS and Warner Bros. to give up on the network entirely.

 

A good chunk of the network's affiliates would probably be unhappy (for a lot of them, the CW is the only thing providing them with any value because they don't produce/air any kind of local news or anything), though, unless they had a hand in something like this.

[ABC 7 Denver 1715]

I think the best route for The CW would be to stop being an over-the-air TV network and find some other method of distribution. Broadcast television is not a niche-friendly playing field, and The CW's target audience of teenagers and young adults seems too desirable for CBS and Warner Bros. to give up on the network entirely.

 

A good chunk of the network's affiliates would probably be unhappy (for a lot of them, the CW is the only thing providing them with any value because they don't produce/air any kind of local news or anything), though, unless they had a hand in something like this.

Hey! If Fusion is coming to air soon (a few years or so), this might be a great transition time! Basically, those stations that want to become Fusion affiliates can go for it and those stations that would like some more autonomy can stay Indie... I'm sure that some stations would really like to drop the MyTV affiliation too, so they could either become Fusion stations or indie stations.

 

Do I make sense? Thoughts?

 

Please ignore, as I am a idiot!

[CircleSeven 1955]

Hey! If Fusion is coming to air soon (a few years or so), this might be a great transition time! Basically, those stations that want to become Fusion affiliates can go for it and those stations that would like some more autonomy can stay Indie... I'm sure that some stations would really like to drop the MyTV affiliation too, so they could either become Fusion stations or indie stations.

 

Do I make sense? Thoughts?

Fusion will be a cable-only network. It will not be an over-the-air terrestrial television network. And I don't think it will ever be an OTA network.

[24994J 5577]

Hey! If Fusion is coming to air soon (a few years or so), this might be a great transition time! Basically, those stations that want to become Fusion affiliates can go for it and those stations that would like some more autonomy can stay Indie... I'm sure that some stations would really like to drop the MyTV affiliation too, so they could either become Fusion stations or indie stations.

 

Do I make sense? Thoughts?

Politely...no.

 

Why on Earth would ABC/Uni approve of Fusion over the air, and why would any affiliate want it? It's a news/commentary channel, something that would NEVER be successful without the income of cable subscriptions.

[ABC 7 Denver 1715]

Politely...no.

 

Why on Earth would ABC/Uni approve of Fusion over the air, and why would any affiliate want it? It's a news/commentary channel, something that would NEVER be successful without the income of cable subscriptions.

I must've missed something... I didn't realize that it was a 24-hour News Channel... In that case, negate everything I said in my last post. :bang:

 

Yeah... So... *sigh*....

 

 

Come here often?

[The Frog 429]

I'm pretty sure a station would rather affiliate with The CW rather than MyNetworkTV.

[newsteam13 395]

Another set of musical chairs, and the set off of the domino effect, like back in 1995.

 

KWGN is on the list of Tribune stations carrying the CW. If Tribune gives up on the CW...

• will KWGN move out of KDVR?
  
• what Denver station will pick up the CW?
  
• will KWGN or another station move in with KCNC, seeing that CW is owned by CBS?
  

What about the duopoly of KTVD and KUSA?

• Will KTVD stay with KUSA at 500 Speer Blvd?
  
• will KTVD affiliate with the CW?
  

Those are a lot of questions in the Denver TV market, especially coming from the former independent stations

[24994J 5577]

I must've missed something... I didn't realize that it was a 24-hour News Channel... In that case, negate everything I said in my last post. :bang:

 

Yeah... So... *sigh*....

 

 

Come here often?

No problem, at least we're all on the same page now.

[Jess 1115]

Is it a certainty that Tribune will pull its affiliations in 2016? Not necessarily.

 

Under the old Sam Zell/Randy Michaels regime, it probably was a certainty. It was a deal they didn't enter into and they were bitching and moaning all the time about it.

 

They're thankfully gone, and Tribune is just now starting to rebuild itself from the wreckage they created. It's obvious they're looking to transform themselves into a pure-play broadcasting company, and home-grown entertainment programming might be part of that transformation. But I'm not sure Peter Ligouri and the new team would be as eager to dump CW.

 

The future of the CW is probably more in the hands of CBS - let's not kid ourselves, they're running the show - than it is in Tribune's.

[channel2 979]

CBS needs to get its act together with The CW. It probably shouldn't be a broadcast network; in addition to the niche-unfriendliness of that sector, being a half-sibling of CBS gives The CW no incentive to grow (this being a problem it inherited from UPN).

 

I'm also not sure if it's turning a profit (probably not), but if CBS were to bring in the right people to run the network and inject better thinking into it, they could turn it around. The fact that it exists (a merger between the money-losing WB and UPN...for what, exactly) is kind of absurd, and its programming isn't the most appealing even to the target demographic, but they can save it if they're not boneheads.

[jero23 105]

One would think that the CBS stations would be locks, but...

 

** KCAL has forged an identity as an extension of the CBS2 News brand by airing newscasts in prime time (not dissimilar from when Disney had KCAL run news from 8-11p nightly).

 

** There's the rub of WLNY. Technically, it's not directly serving the NYC market proper, and none of CBS's NYC FM stations put a 60dBu signal into WLNY's COL of Riverhead. CBS made that case before the FCC when they purchased 101.9 FM, the former WRXP, to relay 66WFAN, to justify ownership cap limits. (Albeit, those are limits largely drafted back in the late 1990s, prior to digital TV, but still, that's how CBS got away with buying both WLNY and 101.9.)

 

If they turned WLNY into a CW affiliate, that would make it a NYC market station. Which CBS could remedy - could - by turning WLNY into a cable-only channel and selling off the terrestrial signal:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

** It's possible that WBFS and KXTA link up with the CW. I wouldn't put all my money on that happening, though.

 

** WLVI is now owned by Sunbeam, and probably will renew with the CW, so WSBK will likely stick with MyTV or go back to being an indie once again someday.

 

What ought to concern the CW is the potential loss of Tribune affiliates in Chicago, Washington DC, Indianapolis, Denver and St. Louis (LocalTV selloffs notwithstanding), NOLA and Atlanta. Some of those markets are so deeply locked in affiliations and/or owners (Chicago, Washington DC and Atlanta come to mind right off the bat) that I'm not sure the network could recover from in spite of KCAL, WLNY, WBFS and KXTA.

 

Somewhere, the Fox suits are laughing over this while going over the balance sheets for MyTV.

Uh, Atlanta's CW affiliate is WUPA, which is owned by CBS thus making it an O&O. As a matter of fact, WUPA is pretty safe bet to remain a CW affiliate as long as the network is in existence. WATL was sold to Gannett back in 2007, so Tribune is non-existent in Atlanta.

[Rusty Muck 4374]

Uh, Atlanta's CW affiliate is WUPA, which is owned by CBS thus making it an O&O. As a matter of fact, WUPA is pretty safe bet to remain a CW affiliate as long as the network is in existence. WATL was sold to Gannett back in 2007, so Tribune is non-existent in Atlanta.

Derp. I forgot about WUPA. My bad.

[fan of la tv 47]

I dont see CBS picking up the CW affiliation for KCAL if Tribune stations do not renew. KCAL has been airing newscasts from 8p-11p for over nearly 25 years and has a solid reputation and decent ratings.

[The Frog 429]

CBS has a stake in the network. KCAL is the only logical place where it will end up.

[channel2 979]

I think the reason Viacom even bought it was so they could yank UPN from KCOP...

[fan of la tv 47]

I just don't see the CW going to KCAL. UPN didn't go to KCAL when CBS bought it and they had a chance to move it before FOX Stations Group renewed UPN affiliation deals. The newscasts on KCAL is too much of a money maker for CBS.

 

One other place the affilation could go to is independent KDOC 56. Its on all major cable providers even though the station is based in Orange County.