Also think of these three surprising things that give strong local news brands an advantage...and wise operators are leveraging and listening to them along the way
- 50% more OTA homes than 10 years ago. Who would have predicted that the drive to digital on demand viewing would result in more over the air households?
https://www.nexttv.com/news/nielsen-sees-uptick-in-over-the-air-households
- An aging population - news viewing has always skewed older, and the size of the cohort with the time and desire to consume news is rising
- Mistrust in national news brands. Whether you like it or not, for decades a sizable minority has felt unheard by the NY-based network news operations. And local brands at least have some dissociation from that for the cohort that cares about it. Awareness and action on that mistrust is higher than it was 10 or 20 years ago for better or worse. On the flip side who would have guessed 20 years ago the evening news on 3 networks plus cable would still be around?
Remember in the 90s and 2000s we were lamenting the stations in big markets that lost their affiliate status as dead men walking?
KRON beat KTVU at 10pm recently.
Who would have thought WHDH even more recently as an example would remain a contender without NBC, let alone lead some ratings after the split?
WSVN still means 'news' more than any other english station in Miami.
KUSI is a perennial contender in the San Diego market to the chagrin of some
WGN leads many time slots
The streamers are signing carriage agreements with the locals
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nexstar-reaches-multi-agreement-youtube-110000355.html
Fact is we've already seen 25% of cable households cut the cord. Smartphones are ubiquitous as are the socials they feed.
The disruption based on the elements we see today is very far along, and what you see today in habits and financials already reflects that. Future change will be things we can't see (who knows what AI does to productivity for example).
CBS can brand all it wants, but NBC has played the network/local combo brand punch in O&O markets for years and it's no magic sauce for NBC. Heck the top web search term for them in LA is....KNBC...which hasn't ever been used in their on air news branding. Consumers will do what's easy for them to reach the talent telling stories they want to see, graphics be damned.
The company that's most deftly handling change in the industry at scale is in my opinion Nexstar, and in ways I wouldn't have guessed 5 or 10 years ago. But investors already figured that out, perhaps too widely, given Nexstar's valuation today.